Shell trims Q1 production guidance as pandemic starts to hit earnings

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Shell trimmed Tuesday its estimated oil and gas production for the first quarter of 2020, warning of major uncertainty over the value and demand for its fuels due to the growing coronavirus pandemic, the company said on Tuesday.

Updating its Q1 guidance, Shell said it expects to report upstream production of between 2.65 million-2.72 million b/d of oil equivalent in the first quarter and between 920,000-970,000 boe/d of integrated gas for LNG.

It had previously guided for upstream production of between 2.63 million-2.76 million boe/d and integrated gas output of 950,000-980,000 boe/d in Q1.

Oil prices have collapsed by more than 50% since to the start of the year to near 18-year lows and Shell said its upstream margins have been impacted by the weak macro environment.

"As a result of COVID-19, we have seen and expect significant uncertainty with macro-economic conditions with regards to prices and demand for oil, gas and related products," Shell said in a statement.

The company estimates that its earnings sensitivity to the oil price collapse is USDS6 billion/year for each USD10/b Brent crude price movement.

Shell said it expects its LNG liquefaction volumes to be 8.8 million-9.2 million mt in the quarter, down from 9 million-9.5 million mt previously. Oil products sales are expected to be 6 million-7 million b/d, down from the previous guidance of 6.4 million-7 million b/d.

Shell said its marketing margins in the first quarter are expected to remain strong, however, as the impact on demand from COVID-19 is "not expected to be significant" in the first quarter. Refining margins are expected to be weaker compared with the fourth quarter of 2019 while refinery utilization is expected to be between 80% and 84%, with availability expected to be between 93% and 96%.

The consensus estimates for Shell's Q1 adjusted earnings are currently USD2.52 billion, down from $5.3 billion in the year-ago period. Shell is scheduled to release its full Q1 earnings results on April 30.

As MRC informed earlier, The COVID-19 outbreak has led Shell Chemical to temporarily suspend construction on the massive plastics and petrochemicals site it's building in Monaca, Pa. The complex will use ethane from shale gas produced in the Marcellus and Utica basins to make around 3.5 billion pounds of polyethylene resin per year. The complex will include four processing units, an ethane cracker and three PE units. Most of the resin made in Monaca is expected to be sold to Shell customers within North America.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 215,390 tonnes in the first month of 2020, up by 23% year on year. Shipments of all grades of high density polyethylene (HDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) increased due to higher capacity utilisation at ZapSibNeftekhim. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market were 127,240 tonnes in January 2020, up by 33% year on year. ZapSibNeftekhim's homopolymer PP accounted for the main increase in shipments.

Royal Dutch Shell plc is an Anglo-Dutch multinational oil and gas company headquartered in The Hague, Netherlands and with its registered office in London, United Kingdom. It is the biggest company in the world in terms of revenue and one of the six oil and gas "supermajors". Shell is vertically integrated and is active in every area of the oil and gas industry, including exploration and production, refining, distribution and marketing, petrochemicals, power generation and trading.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Citing the impact of trade conflicts between the major economies in 2019, injection molding machine maker Haitian Group recorded an overall sales decrease of 9.6% last year compared to 2018, but still sold more than 32,000 units for the year ending Dec. 31, 2019, said Canplastics.

"Although decreased by 6.5% as compared to 2018, the total number of machines delivered to customers in 2019 maintained an impressive level,” the China-based company said in a March 18 press release. “With regard to overseas markets, increased international trade protectionism has led to a decline in sales in some regions. However, sales in the Southeast Asian market increased, which in turn led to record high export sales of RMB 3,447.7 million [US$485 million] in 2019, representing an increase of 2.9% as compared to previous year."

Overall, Haitian Group reported 2019 revenues of RMB 9,809.7 million (USD1.3 billion).

The outbreak of the current coronavirus in early 2020 not only had a negative impact on the global economy, the company noted, but also cast a shadow over the recovering global economies. “However, as Haitian International has been working on globalization for years, our overseas operations centres have developed full business functions, such as manufacturing and distribution, to meet the needs of our local and regional customers,” the company said. “Digitalization and innovation 2020 will be the year of management innovation at Haitian International. With its main focus on smart manufacturing, the Haitian International factories will accelerate the transformation into a digitized, networked and intelligent enterprise.” Last year, Haitian International was added to the list of digitized workshops and smart factories in China’s Zhejiang Province.

On the North American front, Absolute Haitian – the exclusive distributor of Haitian and Zhafir injection molding machinery in the U.S. and Canada – had what it calls “a good year” in 2019. In May 2019, a 116,000-square-foot operations facility was opened in Moncks Corner, S.C., to provide additional capacity and capabilities to support injection molders in the U.S. and Canada, including final assembly, stock machines, customization, service, and parts. “By fall 2019, [Absolute Haitian’s] stock machine inventory reached a record-high 125 machines for quick delivery to injection molders,” the company said.

Absolute Haitian also saw growth in sales dollars and market share even with the reduced overall U.S. market conditions in 2019, due mainly to the increase in larger machine sales. “Sales results in the first two months of 2020 were strong. We remain optimistic that when the current unusual situation is resolved, we’ll see a quick return to normal demand,” said Glenn Frohring, one of the owners of Worcester, Mass.-based Absolute Haitian. “Until then, we remain open as appropriate to support our customers with sales, service, parts and on-line training to ensure they remain operational."

As per MRC's DataScope, overall imports of PC granules to Russia (excluding shipments from Belarus) grew in the first month of 2020 more than by 3 times year on year to 2,590 tonnes. Imports of material into the country were 740 tonnes in January 2019. December 2019 imports of material to Belarus reached 2,850 tonnes. Extrusion grade PC accounted for the greatest increase in January imports. Their share rose significantly in the total imports of material into the Russian Federation to 82% (2,100 tonnes) from 44% (32,000 tonnes) in January 2019.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Diesel profit margins are bucking the downward spiral engulfing jet fuel and gasoline, lifted by continuing industrial activity and stockpiling even as national lockdowns hammer demand for other fuels, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

With 3 billion people - nearly 40% of the world’s population - under lockdown and entire airline fleets being grounded, demand for transport and aviation fuels is plummeting. But in addition to being a transport fuel, diesel, and other middle distillates like gasoil, have industrial and domestic uses, and demand there has not been hit as hard.

However, diesel refining margins in Europe hit a five-month high on Monday at nearly USD17.50 a barrel while gasoline in the region is being produced at a loss and jet fuel differentials are trading at record lows, deep into negative territory. Refining margins for the benchmark 10ppm gasoil grade in Singapore have climbed about 45% in the past two weeks.

Asian jet fuel margins, meanwhile, are lingering at their lowest March levels for 12 years, Refinitiv Eikon data showed. “Gasoil has been the one bright spot for refiners as it remains supported by industrial demand and consumer stockpiling as prices fall,” shipbroker Gibson said in a note.

But it warned that margins will come under pressure as stockpiling demand wanes and warmer weather reduces demand for domestic heating. Gasoil demand up the Rhine river was high because of the contango price situation, while inland importers in Germany and Switzerland were building stocks to benefit from low prices, said Insights Global’s Lars van Wageningen.

"Asian diesel cracks have held up well despite severe weakness in jet and gasoline cracks in recent weeks,” consultancy Energy Aspects said. “But as Middle Eastern refineries are only now returning from turnarounds, we expect a sharp correction in Asian distillate markets soon to bring them into line with the fundamentals of other clean products,” it added.

As MRC informed earlier, brent oil futures may be trading at USD27 per barrel but oil producers are selling their crude in the physical market at lower prices not seen since the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s. Most are offloading their oil for below USD20 a barrel as the coronavirus pandemic savages demand and global supply rises amid a battle between Saudi Arabia and Russia for market share, according to traders, state oil firms, major refiners and prices quoted in physical markets.

As MRC informed earlier, US-based Phillips 66 is delaying three sizeable scheduled shutdowns at its refineries this year, the company said last week, because of concerns that coronavirus could spread among the refineries' workers if the maintenance goes ahead.

We also reminad that Phillips 66 remains open to developing another ethane cracker for its Chevron Phillips Chemical (CP Chem) joint venture, the refiner's CEO said in March 2018.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 2,093,260 tonnes in 2019, up by 6% year on year. Shipments of all PE grades increased. PE shipments rose from both domestic producers and foreign suppliers. The estimated PP consumption in the Russian market was 1,260,400 tonnes in January-December 2019, up by 4% year on year. Supply of almost all grades of propylene polymers increased, except for statistical copolymers of propylene (PP random copolymers).
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- In a deal involving two companies that use post-consumer HDPE as a feedstock, Aurora, Ill.-based Tangent Technologies has acquired Bedford Technology for an undisclosed amount, said Canplastics.

Tangent manufactures HDPE lumber used for outdoor furniture, site amenities, structural applications, and marine decking. Worthington, Minn.-based Bedford is a lumber extruder for product lines also used in marine infrastructure projects, boardwalks, fencing, and other industrial applications.

The acquisition was completed at the end of February and announced on March 23.

"We are delighted to partner with Bedford and to expand the ranges and combined solutions of plastic lumber products,” Tangent CEO Guy DeFeo said in a press release. “With the addition of Bedford, we will build a broader facility footprint across North America as well as build one of the best alternative material innovation organizations for our customers."

As MRC informed earlier, Karpatneftekhim (Kalush, Ivano-Frankivsk region), Ukraine"s largest petrochemical plant, has resumed its high density polyethylene (HDPE) production after a long and forced outage. The plant"s representative and customers said the Ukrainian producer had launched its HDPE production by 23 March. The shutdown of polyethylene (PE) production was forced and took place in early January due to high feedstock prices amid low PE prices. The situation in feedstocks markets has changed dramatically since February, thus, oil prices fell significantly, which allowed to restart PE production.

MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- ExxonMobil held a virtual foundation laying ceremony on Tuesday (March 31) for its multi-billion-dollar expansion of its Jurong Island refining and petrochemical complex to increase its production capacity for higher-value products and cleaner fuels, said Straitstimes.

This investment, which the international energy company announced in April last year, will create 135 new jobs.

It will also have significant spin-offs to the rest of the economy in areas such as logistics, process construction and maintenance, said Senior Minister and Coordinating Minister for National Security Teo Chee Hean, who participated in the ceremony.

In lieu of a physical foundation laying ceremony, ExxonMobil held a video conference from two locations in Singapore and one in Dallas.

New catalyst and process technologies will be deployed at the Chemical and Refining Integrated Singapore Project to convert fuel oil and other bottom-of-the-barrel crude products into higher-value lubricant base stocks and distillates.

The expansion will increase production capacity of cleaner fuels with lower-sulphur content by 48,000 barrels per day, and 20,000 barrels per day of lubricant base stocks.

It can also optimise overall energy use and limit emissions at the facility. Waste heat will be recovered and used to generate steam to reduce electricity and fuel consumption.

Mr Teo said: "Amidst a challenging outlook in the global economy and energy industry, this is a clear indication of ExxonMobil's continued commitment to and confidence in Singapore, as its choice partner and manufacturing hub for the region.

The Singapore refining and petrochemical complex is ExxonMobil's largest integrated manufacturing facility in the world, with a crude oil distillation capacity of 592,000 barrels per day and ethylene capacity of 1.9 million tonnes per year.

ExxonMobil is also one of Singapore's largest foreign investors with over $25 billion in fixed asset investments.

The firm is in discussions with the Government on potential decarbonisation pathways, including opportunities to pilot novel carbon capture technologies here.

As MRC informed earlier, ExxonMobil Corp plans to shut the small gasoline-producing unit at its 560,500 barrels-per-day (bpd) Baytown, Texas, refinery early this week because of low demand due to efforts to halt the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. The shutdown of the 90,000 bpd gasoline-producing fluidic catalytic cracker 2 (FCC 2) could have happened as early as this weekend, sources said.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 215,390 tonnes in the first month of 2020, up by 23% year on year. Shipments of all grades of high density polyethylene (HDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) increased due to higher capacity utilisation at ZapSibNeftekhim. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market were 127,240 tonnes in January 2020, up by 33% year on year. ZapSibNeftekhim's homopolymer PP accounted for the main increase in shipments.

ExxonMobil is the largest non-government owned company in the energy industry and produces about 3% of the world's oil and about 2% of the world's energy.
MRC