COVID-19 - News digest as of 11.08.2021

1. US crude production to decrease less in 2021 than previously forecast

MOSCOW (MRC) -- US crude oil production is expected to fall by 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 11.12 million bpd, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a monthly report, a smaller decline than its previous forecast for a drop of 210,000 bpd, reported Reuters. Oil prices have rebounded from the historic lows seen last year, prompting some US producers to boost drilling activity. The total US rig count has more than doubled since falling to a record low in August last year. The EIA said it expects production to be relatively flat through October before beginning to rise in November and December and throughout 2022.

MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Crude oil futures were holding onto gains in mid-morning trade in Asia Aug. 11, after rising more than 2% overnight, on risk-on sentiment spurred by the passing of a major US infrastructure bill through the Senate and reports of a draw in US crude oil inventories, reported S&P Global.

At 9:46 am Singapore time (0147 GMT), the ICE October Brent futures contract was up 2 cents/b (0.03%) from the previous close at USD70.65/b, while the NYMEX September light sweet crude contract was unchanged over the same period at USD68.29/b.

The risk-on sentiment followed the passing of a USD1.2 trillion infrastructure spending bill by the US Senate overnight, with several US equity indices closing at record highs.

The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act will provide USD550 billion in new government spending to rebuild roads, bridges and other infrastructure in the US, as well as fund climate and clean energy programs.

"The passing of the bipartisan infrastructure bill by the US Senate has led to strength in cyclicals overnight, as the energy, industrials and materials sectors outperformed the broader market," IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said.

Oil prices were also supported by news of a 816,000-barrel draw in US crude oil inventories reported by the American Petroleum Institute overnight, which exceeded the expectations of analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts Aug. 9 of a 600,000-barrel draw. Investors will be looking to the Energy Information Administration's weekly report due for release at 10:30 am EST (1430 GMT) Aug. 11 to confirm the draw.

While concerns lingered over the spread of the delta variant, analysts in Asia said this has mostly been priced into the market.

"The rout that stemmed from delta variant concerns has run its course. The oil market is still heavily in deficit," OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya said.

Nonetheless, COVID-19 caseloads remain high in the world's two largest oil-consuming economies - China and US.

As MRC informed earlier, China's crude oil imports rebounded in July from a six-month low as state-backed refiners ramped up output after returning from maintenance, though independent refineries slowed restocking amid probes by Beijing into trading and taxes.

Ethylene and propylene are the main feedstocks for the production of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), respectively.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 1,176,860 tonnes in the first half of 2021, up by 5% year on year. Shipments of exclusively low density polyethylene (LDPE) decreased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market were 727,160 tonnes in the first six months of 2021, up by 31% year on year. Supply of homopolymer PP and block-copolymers of propylene (PP block copolymers) increased. Supply of statistical copolymers of propylene (PP random copolymers) subsided.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- A fire broke out at one of the naphtha pipelines belong to Haldia Petrochemical in West Bengal, India on Tuesday, 3 August 2021, which took several hours to bring under control, according to CommoPlast.

The petrochemical complex was carrying out maintenance works when the incident took place. A senior official from Haldia was quoted as “Naphtha is highly combustible and a little spark might cause a fire. Generally, we clear the entire tank before any kind of repair work, but there is a possibility that some residual chemical was lying in the pipeline which caused the fire."

In September 2019, as MRC reported earlier, a similar incident occurred at the naphtha cracker that injured 15 people at the site.

The 700,000 tons/year naphtha cracker was shut on 1 August for routine maintenance. The unit was initially scheduled to restart in the first week of September 2021. However, the fire might force the company to take longer to come back, though confirmation from Haldia at the time of this report.

The company also shut downstream units including 340,000 tons/year polypropylene (PP) line, 250,000 tons/year standalone high density polyethylene (HDPE) line, and a 240,000 tons/year HDPE/linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) swing line.

Ethylene and propylene are the main feedstocks for the production of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), respectively.

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 1,176,860 tonnes in the first half of 2021, up by 5% year on year. Shipments of exclusively low density polyethylene (LDPE) decreased. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market were 727,160 tonnes in the first six months of 2021, up by 31% year on year. Supply of homopolymer PP and block-copolymers of propylene (PP block copolymers) increased. Supply of statistical copolymers of propylene (PP random copolymers) subsided.

Haldia Petrochemicals Ltd is a modern naphtha based petrochemical complex at Haldia, West Bengal, India. Haldia has played the role of a catalyst in emergence of more than 500 downstream processing industries in West Bengal with a capacity to process more than 3,50,000 TPA of polymers, among which are polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP)

mrcplast.com

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Russia's overall production of unmixed polyvinyl chloride (PVC) totalled 580,500 tonnes in the first seven months of 2021, up by 4% year on year. At the same time, one producer reduced its output, according to MRC's ScanPlast report.

July total production of unmixed PVC fell to 64,600 tonnes from 83,800 tonnes a month earlier, Bashkir Soda Company and SayanskKhimPlast shut their production capacities for scheduled turnarounds. Overall output of polymer totalled 580,500 tonnes in January-July 2021, compared to 556,800 tonnes a year earlier. Only Bashkir Soda Company reduced its production, whereas three other producers showed an increase in the output of resin.

The structure of PVC production by plants looked the following way over the stated period.

RusVinyl produced 31,700 tonnes of PVC in July, with emulsion polyvinyl chloride (EPVC) accounting for 2,500 tonnes, compared to 29,900 tonnes a month earlier. RusVinyl's overall output of resin exceeded 206,900 tonnes in the first seven months of 2021, compared to 190,500 tonnes a year earlier. Higher production was mainly caused by the absence of a shutdown for maintenances this year.

Sayanskkhimplast shut its production capacities for a 10-day scheduled maintenance last month and, as a result, produced 14,200 tonnes of suspension polyvinyl chlorie (SPVC) versus 23,400 tonnes in June. The Sayansk plant managed to produce 171,100 tonnes of PVC in January-July 2021, compared to 168,300 tonnes a year earlier.

Baskhir Soda Company produced 11,600 tonnes of SPVC in July versus 23,300 tonnes a month earlier. The Baskhir plant's overall production of resin reached 152,100 tonnes in January-July 2021, down by 1% year on year.

Kaustik (Volgograd) produced 7,100 tonnes of SPVC last month, whereas this figure was 7,200 tonnes in June. The plant's overall production of resin reached 50,300 tonnes over the stated period versus 43,700 tonnes a year earlier.

MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- The August contract price of propylene was settled in Europe up by EUR58/tonne from the previous month. At the same time, the difference in monomer and polymer prices has been quite large for several months already, and on the back of this, European producers rolled over July PP prices for August shipments with a few exceptions, according to ICIS-MRC Price report.

Negotiations over August export prices of European PP began last week. All market participants said most European producers still had export restrictions, especially, on propylene copolymers. Producers also announced a roll-over of July PP prices for August shipments, with propylene homopolymer (homopolymer PP) raffia grade, for which some producers had cut prices, being the exception.

European producers had the largest restrictions on PP exports to the CIS markets in May-June, when export quotas were virtually completely absent from most of the sellers. The availability of PP for export has increased from some producers for the past two months, but it was often typical for homopolymer PP.

Deals for August shipments of homopolymer PP were done in the range of EUR1,550-1,640/tonne FCA, whereas last month's deals were done in the range of EUR1,560-1,640/tonne FCA. Deals for block copolymers of propylene (PP block copolymers) started from EUR1,800/tonne FCA and higher, which corresponded to the level a month earlier.
MRC