MOSCOW (MRC) -- Polymer demand growth in Europe for 2013 is expected to be static compared with 2012, according to Applied Market Information Ltd., said Plastemart.
AMI calculates that the market for thermoplastics in Europe is currently 36.5 mln tons, a volume that is still nearly 4 mln tons less than the peak it hit in 2007. Although during 2010 and into 2011 the industry made a modest recovery from the devastating effects of the global downturn of 2008 and 2009, by the last quarter of 2011 the recovery was beginning to run out of steam in the face of the looming eurozone crisis. Although the drop in demand over 2012 and 2013 has been far less severe than in 2008-2009 - polymer producers and processors alike have been more savvy about managing their inventories and have not got caught out as they did in 2008 - the decline in government spending, manufacturing and consumer confidence still resulted in an overall contraction of polymer demand of just over 1% in 2012.
Central Europe also continues to show positive growth, even if some of the smaller countries remain vulnerable to external shocks. Poland is the only country in Europe which has not technically gone into recession since 2007. Although polymer demand growth has weakened, it is still managing to show some positive trends for appliance manufacturing and consumer packaging, even though automotive production in 2012 contracted substantially.
PET bottles for the packaging of alcoholic beverages replacing glass bottles; barrier sheet and multilayer rigid and flexible constructions replacing glass and tin cans; plastic one piece closures replacing two-piece closures and metal tops. While markets are expected to return to growth next year, AMI acknowledges that the effects will be patchy and there will continue to be winners and losers across the European plastics industry. The countries of Southern Europe will continue to seeing shrinking demand as their economies structurally readjust, while Germany and northern European markets (Benelux, UK, Nordic markets) are considered to be more economically sound, which should help to drive growth at least in line with GDP. Central European countries are also still expected to show good growth, driven by ongoing investments in car production and electrical goods manufacturing although the success of their plastics industry will be dependent on growth continuing in the West.
However, volume growth will continue to be offset by trends in lightweighting and downgauging meaning that polymer demand growth is unlikely to advance beyond GDP growth rates. As a result it is likely to be 2020 or beyond before the industry see demand back at its 2007 level again.
As MRC wrote before, in Europe, toiletries and cosmetics sectors are the largest consumers of polymers when comes to non-beverage applications, which account for 60% of total caps and closure industry polymer demand in Europe.
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