Propylene outlook transformed by COVID-19

MOSCOW (MRC) -- The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the crude oil crash are interacting in complex ways to transform the propylene market, reported Chemweek with reference to the statement of Carlo Barrasa, executive director/global olefins at IHS Markit. Barrasa spoke Tuesday during a live session of the IHS Markit World Petrochemical Conference 2020 Online.

"During the financial crisis, propylene demand fell 3.5% year over year, but then it rebounded by over 11% the following year," Barrasa notes. "Today however, we're not only dealing with a single event - the spread of the coronavirus - we're also dealing with an equally influential event in the crude oil price shock. On the one hand, you have a virus that can greatly impact propylene demand via lower consumption. But on the other hand, you have lower oil prices, which can dramatically change the chemical production dynamics over the upcoming quarters."

The sharp decline in crude oil pricing has lowered the cost of propylene feedstocks and flattened the production cost curve, he says. Indeed, naphtha cash costs have fallen low enough to be favored over liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

"Less LPG cracking means more propane will be available, which means PDH (propane dehydrogenation) will likely be the preferred on-purpose vehicle, especially in Asia," says Barrasa. "MTO/CTO (methanol-to-olefin/coal-to-olefin) looks like the odd technology out. Some of these units may keep running due to their downstream integration, but at some point the economics have to win out."

Meanwhile, the economic disruption created by the COVID-19 pandemic has crushed demand.

"Optimistically, we're looking at an environment that can range from flat demand to what we think is a worst-case scenario, where the world loses a month's worth of demand," says Barrasa. "This equals roughly twice the demand loss we saw during the financial crisis. Either way, we're looking at something other than growth."

The lower cost to produce propylene will not translate directly into greater availability. With populations around the world ordered to limit travel in order to contain the pandemic, fuel demand is way down, and crude oil refining - the cheapest source of propylene - is under pressure to cut back operations. "If there isn't enough RG (refinery-grade propylene), this makes room for other sources of propylene supply."

We reminad that, as MRC informed before, Enterprise Products Partners' Mont Belvieu propane dehydrogenation (PDH) unit in Texas restarted from planned maintenance in the first week of December, 2019. The PDH unit went offline for maintenance on November 13. That day, the company said in a filing with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality that the RAC "B" turbine shut down, which resulted in flaring. The flaring was estimated to last 72 hours. The unit has a capacity of 750,000 mt/year, according to Platts data.

Propylene is the main feedstock for the production of polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, PP shipments to the Russian market were 192,760 tonnes in January-February 2020, down by 6% year on year. Homopolymer PP accounted for the main decrease in imports.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- INEOS, one of the world’s largest manufacturing companies, has today announced that it is to build a fourth hand sanitiser plant, said the company.

The plant to be built in Etian will be located to serve the hard hit hospitals in Paris and North Eastern France as well as meet the needs of Belgium. The company has also announced that it has met its ten-day target to build a hand sanitiser plant in Lavera France and has today started production of 1 million hand sanitisers a month.

Hand to mouth contamination is one of the main ways that the Coronavirus infects people and there is a critical shortage of hand sanitisers across France and the rest of Europe. INEOS is focusing on meeting the needs of front line medical and care services as well as making “pocket bottle” hand sanitisers available for people’s personal use. These will be produced to World Health Organisation (WHO) specifications.

Sir Jim Ratcliffe, founder and chairman of INEOS says, “Now that production of the INEOS hand sanitiser has started, we are working on the fastest way to get them to where they need to be. I am confident that within a few days our sanitiser will start to be seen in hospitals, surgeries and people’s homes".

INEOS is the leading European producer of the two key raw materials needed for sanitisers – isopropyl alcohol (IPA) and ethanol, producing almost 1 million tonnes. The company is already running these plants flat out and have been diverting more of this product to essential medical use including in the new INEOS factories.

INEOS takes its corporate and social responsibilities extremely seriously. Its products are essential to the production of essential healthcare products from rubber gloves, to PVC saline drips, syringes, ventilators, medical tubing. Its products purify the public’s drinking water. It produces raw materials for soap, phenol for aspirin and paracetamol, and its acetonitrile is being used in pharmaceutical analysis essential in procedures necessary to find a vaccine.

Sir Jim Ratcliffe, founder and chairman of INEOS adds, “INEOS is a company with enormous resources and manufacturing skills. If we can find other ways to help in the Coronavirus battle, we are absolutely committed to playing our part"

Earlier this week, Moody's downgraded its credit rating for INEOS Group Holdings as a result of the pandemic.

As MRC informed before, the restart of the ACN plant of INEOS Nitriles in Seal Sands, UK with the capacity of 280,000 mt/year from the planned maintenance, which began on 27 July 2019, was delayed in late September for a second time because of technical issues. The plant was initially expected to restart at the end of August.

ACN is a feedstock for the production of acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS).

According to MRC's DataScopr report, overall ABS imports to the Russian market decreased in 2019 by 4% year on year to 33,700 tonnes.

INEOS is a leading manufacturer of petrochemicals, specialty chemicals and oil products. It has 34 businesses, with a production network spanning 171 manufacturing facilities in 24 countries. From paints to plastics, textiles to technology, medicines to mobile phones - chemicals manufactured by INEOS enhance almost every aspect of modern life. INEOS had sales in 2018 of around $60bn and EBITDA close to €6bn. Its products make a significant contribution to saving life, improving health and enhancing standards of living for people around the world.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- BP Plc’s three largest US refineries are operating between 80 and 85% of their individual crude oil processing capacities because of limited storage, reported Reuters with reference to sources familiar with operations at the plants.

Previously, the sources had told Reuters that BP’s 430,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) Whiting, Indiana, refinery, 242,000-bpd Cherry Point, Washington, refinery, and the 155,000-bpd joint-venture refinery in Toledo, Ohio, were operating at 85% of their capacities.

As MRC informed earlier, BP said the deadly coronavirus outbreak could cut global oil demand growth by 40 per cent this year, putting pressure on Opec producers and Russia to curb supplies to keep prices in check.

We also remind that, in September 2019, six world's major petrochemical companies in Flanders, Belgium, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, and the Netherlands (Trilateral Region) announced the creation of a consortium to jointly investigate how naphtha or gas steam crackers could be operated using renewable electricity instead of fossil fuels. The Cracker of the Future consortium, which includes BASF, Borealis, BP, LyondellBasell, SABIC and Total, aims to produce base chemicals while also significantly reducing carbon emissions. The companies agreed to invest in R&D and knowledge sharing as they assess the possibility of transitioning their base chemical production to renewable electricity.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 383,760 tonnes in the first two month of 2020, up by 14% year on year. High density polyethylene (HDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) shipments increased due to the increased capacity utilisation at ZapSibNeftekhim. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market were 192,760 tonnes in January-February 2020, down by 6% year on year. Homopolymer PP accounted for the main decrease in imports.

BP is one of the world's leading international oil and gas companies, providing its customers with fuel for transportation, energy for heat and light, retail services and petrochemicals products for everyday items.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- State-owned Pertamina, Asia’s biggest gasoline importer, is in talks with suppliers to defer petrol imports in April as Jakarta’s measures to fight the coronavirus has hit demand for its fuel, a company spokeswoman said, as per Hydrocarbonprocessing.

Indonesia has joined other countries in imposing restrictions on people’s movements to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, bringing traffic to a standstill and hitting fuel consumption. The cargoes are “postponed until we need it again” depending on demand, Pertamina’s spokeswoman Fajriyah Usman told Reuters, adding that the company was also trying to manage its fuel through storage.

She said sellers should agree to let Indonesia postpone imports at time when global demand has been hit. The country’s gasoline imports have fallen by about half of their average monthly total in 2019 of 1.2 million tonnes of gasoline (333,333 barrels per day), Refinitiv Oil Research.GL-ID-IMP-TOT showed.

“Indonesia gasoline imports could be about 100,000 to 150,000 barrels per day lower in April year-on-year,” said Matthew Chew of IHS Markit. A source said Pertamina was planning refinery run cuts as Indonesia’s fuel consumption has nearly halved while storage space was limited.

Pertamina buys gasoline from trading companies including Singapore-based Hin Leong and Aramco Trading Co. Indonesia’s fuel stockpiles have also risen close to levels before major festivals such as Ramadan and Eid, indicating ample supplies.

Pertamina’s gasoline stocks can last over 22 days, Pertamina said in a statement on April 3. The Pertamax Turbo brand, a 98-octane grade, can last for 42 days while kerosene stocks are enough for 89 days, Pertamina said in the statement.

Pertamina’s gasoil stocks on the other hand are sufficient for more than 24 days, with “Pertamina Dex”, with cetane number 53, is enough for more than 53 days, the company said. Pertamina also said that since a working-from-home rule was implemented in mid-March, daily fuel sales have been declining by about 16% to 113,000 kilolitres (kl) from the usual 134,000 kl.

But demand for LPG is still growing, with sufficient supplies to last for 16 days, the company said.

As MRC informed earlier, on March 19, Pertamina stopped production at the liquid catalytic cracking unit in Balongan (Balongan, West Java, Indonesia) with the aim of carrying out planned preventive measures. Repair work on this installation with a capacity of 180 thousand tons of propylene per year will continue until April 20 of this year.

Ethylene and propylene are feedstocks for producing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

According to MRC's ScanPlast report, Russia's estimated PE consumption totalled 383,760 tonnes in the first two month of 2020, up by 14% year on year. High density polyethylene (HDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) shipments increased due to the increased capacity utilisation at ZapSibNeftekhim. At the same time, PP shipments to the Russian market were 192,760 tonnes in January-February 2020, down by 6% year on year. Homopolymer PP accounted for the main decrease in imports.
MRC

MOSCOW (MRC) -- Trinseo evaluates sale of SM/PBR assets in Germany, a manufacturer of plastics, latex binders, and synthetic rubber, says that it is looking at disposing its styrene monomer assets in Boehlen, Germany, and its polybutadiene rubber (nickel and neodymium-PBR) assets in Schkopau, Germany, said Rubberjournalasia.

The combined Adjusted EBITDA of these operations in 2019 was approximately negative USD18 million. It added that these steps followed a thorough analysis and pursuit of numerous alternative options for improving the financial performance and competitiveness of these facilities.

The Boehlen, Germany styrene facility has capacity of approximately 300 kilotonnes. Average production over the past three years was approximately 200 kilotonnes, below capacity due to several factors, including upstream supply issues. In 2019, production was approximately 150 kilotonnes reflecting the previously disclosed unplanned outages. The Schkopau polybutadiene rubber line has capacity of approximately 30 kilotonnes. Trinseo says it will continue its other operations at the Schkopau site, including polystyrene, SSBR, and ESBR.

Meanwhile, in its other financial results, with a strong start to the year in January and February, weaker business conditions started to emerge in mid-March, particularly in the automotive and tyre markets. However, Trinseo adds that there has been relative strength in polystyrene and latex binders into food packaging applications as well as Performance Plastics into medical applications.

From a production standpoint, Trinseo says it has been able to continue operations at all of its manufacturing locations other than its API Plastics site in Mussolente, Italy, which is complying with a government mandated closure of all non-essential commercial activities throughout the country.

Frank Bozich, President/CEO of Trinseo, commented, “As the coronavirus pandemic has spread from China and Asia, to Europe and the Americas, Trinseo has been actively responding through our crisis management plan and adjusting our business operations accordingly. We are taking decisive action to adapt to the current conditions and are implementing a wide array of safeguards to protect the health of our people. We continue to monitor the situation daily and will take further action as needed.”

Due to the uncertain demand outlook caused by Covid-19, Trinseo is withdrawing its previously issued 2020 full-year financial guidance.

Bozich stated, “In this environment, we are taking aggressive actions to improve cash flow by reducing working capital, capital expenditures, and discretionary spending. We’re reducing our anticipated capital expenditures for 2020 from USD100 million to between USD80 and USD85 million."

As MRC reported earlier, Trinseo and its affiliate companies in Europe have announced a price reduction for all polystyrene (PS) grades in Europe. Effective March 1, 2020, or as existing contract terms allow, the contract and spot prices for the products listed below went down as follows:
-- STYRON general purpose polystyrene grades (GPPS) -- by EUR65 per metric ton;
-- STYRON and STYRON A-Tech and STYRON X- Tech high impact polystyrene grades (HIPS) - by EUR65 per metric ton.

According to ICIS-MRC Price report, prices of Russian PS remained unchanged until the end of the first quarter. Nizhnekamskneftekhim rolled over February prices of its material for shipments in March. Penoplex and Gazprom neftekhim Salavat also maintained their GPPS prices the same.

Trinseo is a global materials company and manufacturer of plastics, latex and rubber. Trinseo's technology is used by customers in industries such as home appliances, automotive, building & construction, carpet, consumer electronics, consumer goods, electrical & lighting, medical, packaging, paper & paperboard, rubber goods and tires. Formerly known as Styron, Trinseo completed its renaming process in 1Q 2015. Trinseo had approximately USD4.6 billion in net sales in 2018, with 16 manufacturing sites around the world, and approximately 2,500 employees.
MRC